Phil Rogers extremely optimistic about the Tigers

[maurice]

He's spent the last 3 months bitching that everything will go wrong for the Sox and paying an absurd amount of attention to what may or may not happen after the 2007 season and even after the 2008 season. When the subject changes to the Tigers (http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/columnists/cs-070312rogers,1,1482277.column?coll=cs-home-utility), it's all rainbows and lollypops.

He acknowledges that it's reasonable to expect the Tigers young pitchers "to show some wear," but considers a meaningful dropoff to be "wishful thinking." The most damning quote:
[T]here's no reason Kenny Rogers, Nate Robertson and closer Todd Jones can't duplicate their performances from last season. Plus, fifth starter Mike Maroth is healthy. Add Gary Sheffield and a full season of Sean Casey to a lineup that already included a full complement of impact players [] and a deep cast of role players [] and the Tigers look like a good bet for another season of 90-plus wins.

Let's take these nonsensical claims one at a time:
- Rogers went 17-8 with a 3.84 ERA. He's been about that good 3 of the last 8 years. The rest of the time, he's a > 4 ERA pitcher. He's 42 years old and will have a harder time hiding his use of illegal substances this year. Could he repeat? Sure . . . but there are reasons to doubt it.
- Robertson had a career year at the age of 29 in terms of wins, ERA, and OPS against. He's a 4.56 career ERA pitcher and his collateral stats have been in decline. Could he repeat? Sure . . . but there are reasons to doubt it.
- Jones is coming off of solid back-to-back seasons. Before that, he posted 3 4.something ERA seasons and a 7.08 ERA season. He turns 39 next month. Could he repeat? Sure . . . but there are reasons to doubt it.
- Maroth may or may not be healthy. He only pitched 53.2 innings last year and spent 3 months on the DL, following elbow surgery. A healthy Maroth has a 4.78 career ERA.
- Sheffield played 39 games last year and spent about 4 months on the DL. He's 38 years old and playing for his 7th MLB franchise, because nobody wants to keep this asshole around.
- Casey isn't very good. He posted a sub-.800 OPS for 4 of the last 5 seasons. He'd be lucky to hit 15 HR playing half his games at Comerica, and this is their starting 1B?!?
- Everybody forgets that the Tiger's early wins were powered by Shelton's early-season, Cinderella performance (10 HR, 1.187 OPS in April). There will be no repeat of that this year.
- Granderson and Thames also played way above their heads in the early part of the season, before dropping off a cliff in the 2nd half. Granderson's AVE dropped 40 pts and his OPS dropped 127 pts. Thames' AVE dropped 98 pts and his OPS dropped almost 300 pts.
- Ordonez, Polanco, and Guillen all are major injury risks. Lord know what kind of alien technology is holding Maggs' knee together, and the other 2 are on the DL every single year.
- Rodriguez may be their best all-around player, but he's 35 and lost a ton of power when he stopped taking his special vitamins. One of these years, he's gonna hit the wall hard. It's not easy squatting for a living, once you become eligible for AARP.

Still think they're a good bet for > 90 wins, Phil?

[CaptainBallz]

It is not Rogers' intention to use facts and common sense to come to a conclusion about baseball.

It his intent to annoy Sox fans because he's a tool. And he's good at it.

[the fluffer]

I love Maurice's typed-in-MSWord-then-pasted-into-forum threads.

The other factoid to cinsider with the Tigers is that if any of their key players go down as Maurice has stated very well here... is that who fills in? Their farm system is primarily all pitching prospects and little in the way of position prospects. THey'll end up with 2 or 3 Neifi Perez's running around out there.

Additionally, what young position players do they have under contract that have upside and will get better? Brandond Inge? Curtis Granderson? Then what? 95% of their roster are aging veterans who they paid dearly for. Maggs, Sheffield, I-Roid, Polanco, and their lone bright spot might have to change positions to cover for his defensive struggles, not to mention that he is a freeagent-to-be.

Great post, by the way, Maurice.

[cheeses_h_rice]

Meh. I think the Tigers have a great chance of winning the damn division.

[the fluffer]

Meh. I think the Tigers have a great chance of winning the damn division.


So do the Sox, Twins and Indians. :shrug:

[cheeses_h_rice]

So do the Sox, Twins and Indians. :shrug:

Agreed. But I have a bad feeling about the Sox this year. Shit's just going to go wrong, is my hunch.

[SABRSox]

Agreed. But I have a bad feeling about the Sox this year. Shit's just going to go wrong, is my hunch.

Sometimes I get that vibe too, but it's only spring training, and I haven't been able to watch the games, so I'm not too worried.

I think the Sox have a great chance if Buehrle is his old self, and that 5th starter thing gets figured out pretty quickly.

[fquaye14ten]

the next good thought phil rogers has will be his first

[Unregistered]

[T]here's no reason Kenny Rogers, Nate Robertson and closer Todd Jones can't duplicate their performances from last season.

That's all I need to read to know PRog-Rock is full of shit. Like maurice already said, Kenny Rogers is 42, Todd Jones is 39 and sucks ass - so many of his saves were a single away from being blown. He had much more of a lucky year than a good year. And Nate Robinson? Fuck that guy.

Those all sound like reasons why they can't "duplicate their performances" to me. :shrug:

[JohnBasedowYoda]

Sox Clubhouse:shrug:

[Hangar18]

I dont see anything wrong with his assessments.
The pitching will definitely take it down a notch, but I think they improved the hitting which should make up for that. The SOX on the other hand improved their bullpen, which they neglected last season and they paid for it. The SOX took alot of chances with their pitchers, and PRogers probably is basing his opinion that the new guys wont put up 200 innings
and be dominant like they were in 2005 when they won the Division ...........

[Hangar18]

The White Sox are probably the better LONG TERM bet to dominate the division rather than short term .............

[maurice]

I think that both the Tigers and the Sox probably will be competitive in the division, but neither team is flawless. Rogers simply assumes that nobody on the Sox will bounce back after a down year and that everybody on the Tigers will continue to perform at peak levels. This is extremely unlikely, when you consider that every key player on the Tigers is really young, really old, and/or chronically injured. He also constantly bitches about Sox pitching, while claiming that Doug Jones and Mike Maroth will do great, and that the Cubs have 15+ quality pitchers.
:rolleyes:

The other factoid to cinsider with the Tigers is that if any of their key players go down . . . who fills in?

When Polanco went down last year, they never came up with a quality replacement. The best they do was trade for Neifi Perez.

[Prope]

The thing about the AL Central this year is that nobody, on paper at least, scares me at all. I think the division will not be as dominate as it was last year when you consider...

-The Tigers will fall back to Earth, but will still have a decent team.
-After Santana, the Twins' rotation is average at best, but they have a great bullpen.
-The Indians have a great lineup but Cliff Lee is injured to start the season and the bullpen still blows.

With that said I'm not incredibly high on the Sox right now either. It will certainly be an interesting division race.

[soxwon]

Agreed. But I have a bad feeling about the Sox this year. Shit's just going to go wrong, is my hunch.

im thinking totally differently.
i vision a day 1 to the end title as in 05
i see us better than 05, i see the kids really being studs
i have a hunch- a very strong one
we may run away with this.
Remember who you heard it from first.

[1951Campbell]

That line pretty much made me stop reading that bullshit.

I tuned out when he was selling the idea that a 42-year-old not named Cy Young can win 17 games two years in a row.

[Unregistered]

I tuned out when he was selling the idea that a 42-year-old not named Cy Young can win 17 games two years in a row.

http://www.nbc5.com/2005/1220/5587388_240X180.jpg
http://www.abc.net.au/news/olympics/graphics/phil-rogers-profile.jpg
http://www.14cav.org/a3p-49b5.jpg
http://www.bauer.uh.edu/images/directory/large/phil_rogers.jpg
http://img340.imageshack.us/img340/2931/philrogers000dn2.jpg
There are 5 dudes named "Phil Rogers" that are better baseball writers than this guy:
http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/media/thumbnails/columnist/2003-05/7622751.jpg
"What up?"

[JohnBasedowYoda]

:lookitup:

[Myrtle]

:lookitup:

Did Unreg find that one too? If so, how ironic. :bananarock:

[JohnBasedowYoda]

Did Unreg find that one too? If so, how ironic. :bananarock:



mmm, quite

[Unregistered]

Did Unreg find that one too? If so, how ironic. :bananarock:

http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/1155/fuzzballtoastingyy4.jpg

A toast!

[EvilleFan]

He's spent the last 3 months bitching that everything will go wrong for the Sox and paying an absurd amount of attention to what may or may not happen after the 2007 season and even after the 2008 season. When the subject changes to the Tigers (http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/columnists/cs-070312rogers,1,1482277.column?coll=cs-home-utility), it's all rainbows and lollypops.

He acknowledges that it's reasonable to expect the Tigers young pitchers "to show some wear," but considers a meaningful dropoff to be "wishful thinking." The most damning quote:


Let's take these nonsensical claims one at a time:
- Rogers went 17-8 with a 3.84 ERA. He's been about that good 3 of the last 8 years. The rest of the time, he's a > 4 ERA pitcher. He's 42 years old and will have a harder time hiding his use of illegal substances this year. Could he repeat? Sure . . . but there are reasons to doubt it.
- Robertson had a career year at the age of 29 in terms of wins, ERA, and OPS against. He's a 4.56 career ERA pitcher and his collateral stats have been in decline. Could he repeat? Sure . . . but there are reasons to doubt it.
- Jones is coming off of solid back-to-back seasons. Before that, he posted 3 4.something ERA seasons and a 7.08 ERA season. He turns 39 next month. Could he repeat? Sure . . . but there are reasons to doubt it.
- Maroth may or may not be healthy. He only pitched 53.2 innings last year and spent 3 months on the DL, following elbow surgery. A healthy Maroth has a 4.78 career ERA.
- Sheffield played 39 games last year and spent about 4 months on the DL. He's 38 years old and playing for his 7th MLB franchise, because nobody wants to keep this asshole around.
- Casey isn't very good. He posted a sub-.800 OPS for 4 of the last 5 seasons. He'd be lucky to hit 15 HR playing half his games at Comerica, and this is their starting 1B?!?
- Everybody forgets that the Tiger's early wins were powered by Shelton's early-season, Cinderella performance (10 HR, 1.187 OPS in April). There will be no repeat of that this year.
- Granderson and Thames also played way above their heads in the early part of the season, before dropping off a cliff in the 2nd half. Granderson's AVE dropped 40 pts and his OPS dropped 127 pts. Thames' AVE dropped 98 pts and his OPS dropped almost 300 pts.
- Ordonez, Polanco, and Guillen all are major injury risks. Lord know what kind of alien technology is holding Maggs' knee together, and the other 2 are on the DL every single year.
- Rodriguez may be their best all-around player, but he's 35 and lost a ton of power when he stopped taking his special vitamins. One of these years, he's gonna hit the wall hard. It's not easy squatting for a living, once you become eligible for AARP.

Still think they're a good bet for > 90 wins, Phil?

This is great! Could elaborate a little?

[EvilleFan]

Oh goodness no, sir. Nothing like that. I just thought, well at least originally, that it was a little long. But, for this thread I am sure its perfect.

[EvilleFan]

snicker.

[the fluffer]

Oh goodness no, sir. Nothing like that. I just thought, well at least originally, that it was a little long. But, for this thread I am sure its perfect.


http://patton.blogdeldia.com/media/1/20050619-diapo_312.jpg

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[Lucifer]

This is a classic example of why I havent read a sports article out of Chicago for years. All these sports writers are the same....FUCKIN WAGON JUMPERS. Hey Rogers, how about picking a team that doesnt look the best on paper. Where was his big bold predictions last year for the Twinkies and Tigers getting to the playoffs? He's a piece of shit just like the rest of the writers....they all know everything about nothing.:D

[fquaye14ten]

he has bleeding knees

[Iwritecode]

I dont see anything wrong with his assessments.
The pitching will definitely take it down a notch, but I think they improved the hitting which should make up for that.

That's sounds exactly like what WE all said about the Sox in 2001-2004.