PECOTA Predicts The Sox Will Go 72-90 (And Defends It)

[Unregistered]

Kinda old news, but the sword swallowers at Baseball Prospectus and their shitty computer say the Sox will only win 72 games. For the first time, however, there are reactions from the players and justification from the writers of the PECOTA program.

"Well, we're screwed now," team captain Paul Konerko said with a sarcastic laugh. "I guess we'll just have to battle through."

Exactly. We still have to play the games.

Here's what the dude who wrote the program said:

"Seventy-two is what the computer is saying, not what I would say if I were in Las Vegas and had a gun to my head," said Nate Silver, who helped write the program and feed statistics into the computer.

"If I were doing it [subjectively], I wouldn't say 72, but I would say they could be .500. I do believe they'll finish behind [Minnesota, Cleveland and Detroit] in the Central."


A few player reactions (and some from KW) at the link:
Link (http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/cs-070310sox,1,5099440.story?coll=cs-home-headlines)

[Unregistered]

Whoever this Pecota dude is is a jagoff.

Gary Pecota. I think he played a couple seasons in Japan. Catcher, I believe.

[Lucifer]

Does anyone know when was the last time PECOTA got lucky and came close teams records?

[Unregistered]

Does anyone know when was the last time PECOTA got lucky and came close teams records?

PECOTA predicted the Sox to finish 71-91 in 2005.

So according to them, we're actually a better team than the 2005 team that won the World Series.

I can live with that. :rock:

[Lucifer]

PECOTA predicted the Sox to finish 71-91 in 2005.

So according to them, we're actually a better team than the 2005 team that won the World Series.

I can live with that. :rock:

Right on. Im all over that shit. Let me see, 05 we were expected to win 71 and win 99, this were expected to win 72 so maybe we only win 98. I'll take that!:fuckyeah:

[Lucifer]

You mean 100. I wanna see 100. It's only happened one time in our history. That ain't right, it's time to win 100. :omg:

Im with you. Ill take 100. I didnt want to be too optimistic so thats why I said 98.;)
:jr:
I want to see JR smoking another victory BLUNT again in October of 07!

[itsnotrequired]

WHO SMOKES THE BLUNTS?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/olmedia/1335000/images/_1338630_hussain300.jpg

[oeo]

"The reason the team projection is poor is because individual projections are poor," Silver said. "Jermaine Dye (33), Jim Thome (36) and Paul Konerko (31) are on the wrong side of 30 [years old]. And there are places where they give away too many runs."

The computer didn't like Darin Erstad because of his age (32) and injury history and didn't like expected fifth starter Gavin Floyd because of his inexperience. Plus, Silver said, the rest of the division and the American League are getting better.

This is why a computer will never be able to make valid predictions. It cannot predict whether a guy will have a good year, or if he's healthy, or whether another guy will have a breakout year. It's stupid, this shit should never be taken seriously.

[CaptainBallz]

Someone missed a decimal point. I have the Sox winning 720 games in '07!!!

And that's with a five man roster...

I have the best hacks...

[fquaye14ten]

zoso=drunk

zoso=punk

zoso=so so

[the fluffer]

PECOTA also predicted in 2005 that Thome would retire after 2006.

History has proved time and time again... that nothing in baseball, especially outcomes of 162-game seasons, can be accurately predicted. Well, unless these predictions are made on the final day of the season.